有限区域短期数值预报业务系统简介          下载免费PDF全文

茅卫平  马华平  郭卫东  李振军 《气象》1995,21(4):37-42

简要介绍了空军气象中心投入业务使用的《空军有限区域短期数值预报业务系统》的概况、采用的主要技术，检验评分结果，最后给出了天气学个例检验结果。  相似文献   

DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS AND VERIFICATION OF PREDICTION OF THE TROPICAL PACIFIC SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALIES DURING 1997 ~ 1998   总被引：1，自引：1，他引：0  

李清泉  赵宗慈 《热带气象学报(英文版)》2001,7(2):144-153

By comparing with ENSO events that ever happened in the history, the basic features and probable causes of the anomalous sea surface temperature of the tropical Pacific Ocean during 1997 and 1998 have been analyzed diagnostically. It is found that the 1997/1998 El Nino had significant abnormalities and peculiarities. It differs from the previous El Ni?o events falling into the simple “eastern pattern” or “western pattern”. The predictions of 1997/1998 El Ni?o event have also been tested with an intermediate ocean-atmosphere coupled dynamic model. The results show that the skills of the 0～24 lead month forecasts for the warm event are all above 0.5. The predictions of the mature phase and the later stages of the warm event are better than those of the beginning phase.  相似文献   

Assessing spatial and attribute errors in large national datasets for population distribution models: a case study of Philadelphia county schools     

Lauren Patterson  Marie Urban  Aaron Myers  Budhendra Bhaduri  Eddie Bright  Phillip Coleman 《GeoJournal》2007,69(1-2):93-102

Geospatial technologies and digital data have developed and disseminated rapidly in conjunction with increasing computing efficiency and Internet availability. The ability to store and transmit large datasets has encouraged the development of national infrastructure datasets in geospatial formats. National datasets are used by numerous agencies for analysis and modeling purposes because these datasets are standardized and considered to be of acceptable accuracy for national scale applications. At Oak Ridge National Laboratory a population model has been developed that incorporates national schools data as one of the model inputs. This paper evaluates spatial and attribute inaccuracies present within two national school datasets, Tele Atlas North America and National Center of Education Statistics (NCES). Schools are an important component of the population model, because they are spatially dense clusters of vulnerable populations. It is therefore essential to validate the quality of school input data. Schools were also chosen since a validated schools dataset was produced in geospatial format for Philadelphia County; thereby enabling a comparison between a local dataset and the national datasets. Analyses found the national datasets are not standardized and incomplete, containing 76 to 90 percent of existing schools. The temporal accuracy of updating annual enrollment values resulted in 89 percent inaccuracy for 2003. Spatial rectification was required for 87 percent of NCES points, of which 58 percent of the errors were attributed to the geocoding process. Lastly, it was found that by combining the two national datasets, the resultant dataset provided a more useful and accurate solution.  相似文献   

Hybrid Estimation of Semivariogram Parameters   总被引：1，自引：0，他引：1  

Hao Zhang  Dale L. Zimmerman 《Mathematical Geology》2007,39(2):247-260

Two widely used methods of semivariogram estimation are weighted least squares estimation and maximum likelihood estimation. The former have certain computational advantages, whereas the latter are more statistically efficient. We introduce and study a “hybrid” semivariogram estimation procedure that combines weighted least squares estimation of the range parameter with maximum likelihood estimation of the sill (and nugget) assuming known range, in such a way that the sill-to-range ratio in an exponential semivariogram is estimated consistently under an infill asymptotic regime. We show empirically that such a procedure is nearly as efficient computationally, and more efficient statistically for some parameters, than weighted least squares estimation of all of the semivariogram’s parameters. Furthermore, we demonstrate that standard plug-in (or empirical) spatial predictors and prediction error variances, obtained by replacing the unknown semivariogram parameters with estimates in expressions for the ordinary kriging predictor and kriging variance, respectively, perform better when hybrid estimates are plugged in than when weighted least squares estimates are plugged in. In view of these results and the simplicity of computing the hybrid estimates from weighted least squares estimates, we suggest that software that currently estimates the semivariogram by weighted least squares methods be amended to include hybrid estimation as an option.  相似文献   

A One-dimensional Ensemble Forecast and Assimilation System for Fog Prediction     

M. D. Müller  C. Schmutz  E. Parlow 《Pure and Applied Geophysics》2007,164(6-7):1241-1264

A probabilistic fog forecast system was designed based on two high resolution numerical 1-D models called COBEL and PAFOG. The 1-D models are coupled to several 3-D numerical weather prediction models and thus are able to consider the effects of advection. To deal with the large uncertainty inherent to fog forecasts, a whole ensemble of 1-D runs is computed using the two different numerical models and a set of different initial conditions in combination with distinct boundary conditions. Initial conditions are obtained from variational data assimilation, which optimally combines observations with a first guess taken from operational 3-D models. The design of the ensemble scheme computes members that should fairly well represent the uncertainty of the current meteorological regime. Verification for an entire fog season reveals the importance of advection in complex terrain. The skill of 1-D fog forecasts is significantly improved if advection is considered. Thus the probabilistic forecast system has the potential to support the forecaster and therefore to provide more accurate fog forecasts.  相似文献   

光学测微器的原理、检定及误差分析   总被引：4，自引：1，他引：4  

路杰 《测绘信息与工程》2002,27(4):23-24

着重讨论了高精度光学测微器的基本工作原理、检定方法及误差分析。  相似文献   

1997/1998年热带太平洋海温异常的诊断分析与预报检验     

李清泉  赵宗慈 《热带气象学报》2001,17(4):355-363

通过与历史上已发生的ENSO事件的比较，对1997－1998年热带太平洋海温异常的基本特征和可能成因进行了诊断分析，发现1997／1998年E1Nino事件具有显著的异常性和独特性，不同于以往单纯的东部型或西部型E1Nino。对用一个简化海气耦合动力学模式做1998／1998年E1Nino事件的预报进行检验。结果表明该模式对这次暖事件超前0－24个月的预报技巧均在0．5以上，模式对暖事件的成熟位相及以后阶段的预报比对暖事件的开始阶段预报得好。  相似文献   

黄沙坪矿田的综合找矿模式及其在隐伏矿床预测中的应用   总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3  

王恢绪 《湖南地质》1992,11(1):21-26

黄沙坪矿田的综合找矿模式可概括为已知黄沙坪铅锌矿床成矿模式、地质地球化学及地球物理找矿标志以及最优找矿方法。黄沙坪铅锌矿床成矿母岩与中酸性高侵位岩体有关,倒转背斜轴部及其纵横断裂交汇处控制矿床,走向逆冲断裂带、间层断裂或虚脱带、岩体侵入接触带等控制矿体;矿床范围内有重力、磁力、电性、放射性等异常,出现成矿元素及重矿物指示标志;探查岩体(探岩)、圈定远景区(圈区)找矿床赋存部位(找位)、寻工业矿体(寻体)是最优找矿方法。此综合找矿模式在隐伏矿床预测中的应用经钻探验证取得了积极效果。  相似文献   

湖陆风效应为主导的地面弱风预报方法     

苗青建  矫东霖  陈江云  徐唱  吴思江  罗超  刘杰  武越  严鹏 《沙漠与绿洲气象(新疆气象)》2020,14(1):56-62

对博斯腾湖东南陆地风场数据进行计算,结合湖陆风效应初步建立夏半年各月风场日变化模型,得出风场日变化的4个典型时段。结果表明,区域测站一致性系数和风场有较好的对应关系,一致性系数小于50说明风向不稳定且风速较小,一致性系数大于80说明风向趋于稳定且风速一般较大,弱风时段主要出现在日出日落前后,且具有2h左右的持续时间。该方法为该地区弱风时段预报提供了思路,在稳定的高压脊形势下效果尤为明显。  相似文献   

基于混合架构的空间数据库一致性探讨     

黄艳菊 《地理空间信息》2006,4(2):61-62

探讨了混合架构下C/S和B/S对空间数据并发修改操作带来的空间数据库一致性问题,提出了在同一数据库中建立过渡数据库和生产数据库的方案,并以某省森林防火地理信息系统为例验证了该方法的可行性。  相似文献